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The Wagner Group’s Route to Infamy

The Wagner Group’s Route to Infamy

BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT:  The privately-owned Russian soldier-for-hire group known as the Wagner Group once operated in the shadows but in the past year, it has become an important part of Russia’s war machine in Ukraine. The group’s leader Yevgeny Prigozhin is a trusted Kremlin ally but recent comments criticizing Russian defense ministry officials are raising questions about just how much influence the group and it’s owner, actually wield.

Russia’s war in Ukraine has added to the notoriety and mystique of this private military company (PMC).  Recently, though, long-simmering tensions between Wagner and Russia’s mainline military have erupted into the open.  In an audio message published by his own press service, Prigozhin took Russian military officials to task for withholding weapons and ammunition that he says are desperately needed by Wagner forces on the battlefield.

The Cipher Brief has become the most popular outlet for former intelligence officers; no media outlet is even a close second to The Cipher Brief in terms of the number of articles published by formers.” —Sept. 2018, Studies in Intelligence, Vol. 62

Is China Coming to Russia’s Rescue in Ukraine?

BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT:  Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang said at an annual parliamentary session in Beijing this week, that China is actively working to advance relations with Russia “as the world becomes more turbulent.” The announcement comes as Western countries warn China against providing lethal aid to Russia in support of it’s war in Ukraine. China has denied plans for arms transfers and has floated a proposal for a political settlement. As Chinese-Russian relations intensify, the world is left to wonder if expanded ties will enable Russia, either directly or indirectly, to sustain its aggressive military ambitions in Ukraine.

“I think China, with their peace proposal, — although a lot of it is disingenuous, we know that — it should be given a shot because China and Xi have influence on Russia,” said Ambassador Joseph DeTrani, one of several experts The Cipher Brief engaged for a discussion of what year two of the Ukraine conflict might bring, and the role China might play. “I think Xi can moderate Putin significantly,” DeTrani said. “There’s an opportunity there, and I think we could use it and we could use it smartly. But just vilifying and making China the enemy and going into a new Cold War, is not going to address the issues in Ukraine.”

The Cipher Brief has become the most popular outlet for former intelligence officers; no media outlet is even a close second to The Cipher Brief in terms of the number of articles published by formers.” —Sept. 2018, Studies in Intelligence, Vol. 62

Arab Countries are Launching Significant Investments in Space

EXPERT VIEWFor only the second time since its launch in 1998, the International Space Station (ISS) has welcomed an Arab astronaut. Sultan al-Neyadi will spend six months in orbit in what will be the longest Arab space mission in history.  The Middle East is poised to play a significant role in a global space industry that was valued near $470 billion in 2022. 

The Cipher Brief spoke with Middle East Expert Norm Roule about the growing Arab presence in space and how the region is looking at opportunities in the crowded space market.  

The Cipher Brief has become the most popular outlet for former intelligence officers; no media outlet is even a close second to The Cipher Brief in terms of the number of articles published by formers.” —Sept. 2018, Studies in Intelligence, Vol. 62

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